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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2020/08

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2020-10-14
  •     According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of August 2020 amounted to 1066.26 points,  with a month on month increasing range of 0.52% and a year on year falling range of 6.98%. The monthly price index of August 2020 amounted to 101.2 points, up 0.79% month on month and 1.09% year on year. With seasonal products maintained hot sellers in the market and the deepening of summer vocation economy, domestic sales have the mainstream of the market. Trade volume index, popularity index and trade turnover index of August 2020, were all increased.
         I. The composition of the prosperity index and the rise and fall
         1. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
        The monthly prosperity index of August, 2020 was  1066.26 points, rose by 0.52% month-on-month and fell by 6.98% year-on-year. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        (1) Scale index: The scale index of August 2020 counted up to 859.11 points, up 1.23% month-on-month and down 4.72% year-on-year. The update rate of summer new products in this month has slowed down, with the variety expansion index falling by 0.24%. Recently, the backflow of domestic permanent foreign purchasers increased significantly, coupled with the arrival of the summer tourist season, the popularity index was prompted to rise by 0.12% compared with the previous month. With the recovery of foreign trade, the overall trade turnover index and the trade volume index rose by 1.7% and 1.48% respectively.
        (2)Benefit index: The benefit index of August 2020 counted up to 1395.89 points, decreased by 0.39% month-on-month and 13.23% year-on-year. Recently, affected by increasing de-stocking activities of summer products, merchants' profit have decreased, thus the   average gross profit index, commodities' turnover rate index and  and fund's turnover rate index fell by 4.33%, 4.43% and 9.29% respectively month on month.
         (3) Confidence Index: The confidence index of August 2020 amounted to 1012.82 points, with a month on month increase of 0.98% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% . The return of foreign purchasers has strengthened merchants' confidence, and foreign trade is expected to be improved.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,11 of them have gone up.The monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry, Arts & Crafts and Accessories & Packaging have stayed in the forefront, up 125.58 points, 96.62 points and 76.84 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry, Knitting & Weaving Products, Cases & Bags, Stationary & Officical Equipments and Sports & Entertainment Products have kept rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Glasses, Accessories & Packaging, Arts & Crafts, Electrical & Electronic Appliances, Shoes and Apparel &  Accessories have rebound in August. Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 4 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Toys, Personal Care Products and Hardware & Electrical Products have stayed in forefront, down 71.36 points, 48.65 points and 29.67 points respectively compared with last month. The monthly prosperity index of Personal Care Products has fallen after rise. The monthly prosperity indices of Toys, Daily Necessities and Hardware & Electrical Products have kept falling for two consecutive months.
        2. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of August 2020 amounted to 101.2 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.79% and a year-on-year increase of 1.09%. Among them, the export trade price index fell slightly by 0.02% month-on-month, while the market order price index and the directs transaction price index  increased by 0.04% and 5.18% respectively.
     
        Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 5 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Accessories & Packaging, Accessories & Packaging and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in the forefront, increased by 3.63 points, 0.17 points and 0.14 points respectively month on month. The monthly price index of Accessories & Packaging has rebounded in August. The monthly price index of Apparel & Accessories has kept the same level with last month. The other 9 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Stationary & Official Equipment, Cases & Bags and Timepieces & Eyeglasses have stayed in the forefront of the falling range, down 2.02 points, 1.03 points and 0.11 points month on month respectively. Among that, the monthly price indices of Sports &Entertainment Products, Toys, Shoes and Timepieces & Eyewear  have fallen for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Daily Necessities, Arts & Crafts, Hardware & Electronic, Cases & Bags and Stationary &Official Equipment have fallen after rising.
    II. Analysis for the Influencing Factors of Prosperity Index
    (1) Increased purchasers flow promoted the popularity of market.
    In August, foreign businessmen in a number of export-oriented industries returned significantly. Coupled with the deepening of the summer tourist season, the domestic and foreign markets were active. The popularity indices of arts & crafts, stationary & official supplies, timepieces & glasses continued to rise in August, up by 0.32 points, 2.16 points and 0.75 points respectively. The rising popularity promoted the whole market, prosperity indices of three major categories rose by 96.62 points, 31.67 points and 3.32 points respectively.
    (2)Approaching of school-opening promoted the consumption of student supplies.
    As school would opening soon, the market demands for stationary & official supplies was gradually heating up. The  prosperity indices of paper products, writing tools and measuring instruments rose by 104.55 points, 38.15 points and 7.75 points respectively. In addition, students' bedding, daily necessities and luggage were well received by merchants, the prosperity indices of bags, cases, sanitary & cleaning daily necessities and bedding rose by 50.21 points, 24.46 points, 13.22 points and 12.46 points respectively.
    (3) Preheating of autumn and winter product market
    Affected by cyclical factors, the autumn and winter products have ushered in a new round of purchasing market. With strong demands for seasonal products such as accessories, woolen yarn, home textiles and underwear, the prosperity indices of which rose by 84.08 point, 47.63 points, 17.27 points and 17.08 points respectively. As the summer vacation was coming to an end, some summer products and leisure & entertainment products had a significant increase in the on-site promotional retail market, the transaction price indices of small household appliances, rain boots, leisure tool vehicles and remote control toys rose by 11.77 points, 0.34 points, 0.3 points and 0.19 points respectively.
     
    III.Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    (1) The future market of packaging & accessories, knitting &weaving products and apparel & accessories were promising.
    Effected by seasonal factors, autumn & winter products of packaging & accessories, knitting &weaving products and apparel & accessories were fully launched, and the export market would be booming.
    (2) The foreign trade of jewelry, hardware & electronics, personal care products and electrical & electronic appliances tended to be stable.
    Foreign merchants flow was relatively stable in the mid-year time, and the foreign trade of  jewelry, hardware & electronics, personal care products and electrical & electronic appliances tended to be stable.
    (3) Increasing domestic and international festivals promoted the demands for crafts, toys and daily necessities.
    With the approaching of the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Halloween and Christmas Days in the second half year, the procurement for tourism & leisure products heated up. The peak season for related holiday products such as crafts, toys and daily necessities can be forecast.
    (4) Increasing orders for  were placed by customers from surrounding areas.  
    With the school opening in September, the domestic sales of timepieces & eyeglasses, cases & bags, stationary & official products and sports & entertainment products were expected to rise.