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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2020/06

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2020-07-29
  •      According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of June 2020 amounted to 1057.14 points, increased by 0.12% month on month while dropped by 7.62% year on year. The monthly price index of June 2020 amounted to 100.17 points, rose by 0.1% month on month while decreased by 0.02% year on year. With the ease of domestic epidemic, domestic procurements have back to track, and the monthly prosperity index has risen for three consecutive months. The epidemic situation of surrounding countries and regions was improve, the viewing sample and enquiry activities of foreign merchants increased, and the confidence index was expected to be rising. 
         I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
        The monthly prosperity index of June, 2020 was 1057.14 points, up 0.12% month-on-month and down 7.62% year-on-year. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        1. Scale index:
        The scale index of June, 2020 counted to 848.09 points, dropped by 1.01% month-on-month and 4.54% year-on-year. The purchasing peak of summer product has passed, the market entered a mid-year consolidation phase, the variety expansion index displayed a stable trend , and fell slightly by 0.06%. The arrival of Southern rainy season affected the travel of merchants, and the orders were mainly placed through telephone and internet, the popularity index  fell slightly by 0.26% month-on-month. With the falling popularity, the overall trade turnover index and trade volume index declined slightly, down 1.4% and 1.11% respectively.
        2. Benefit index:
        The Benefit index of June, 2020, counted to1389.3 points, rose by 1.01% month-on-month while dropped by 14.23% year-on-year. During the epidemic, the proportion of domestic market purchasing increased. With the development of the live broadcast economy, the purchase of online merchants showed an upward trend, and the profit margins of merchants have expanded. The average gross profit index, commodities turnover index and fund's turnover rate index increased by 1.18%, 6.25% and 1.48% respectively.
        3. Confidence Index:
        The confidence index of June, 2020 counted to 1003.72 points, rose by 0.19% month-on-month while dropped by 0.63% year-on-year. With the ease of epidemic situation in some foreign countries, the number of inquiries has increased. The confidence of merchants has slightly strengthened.
     
     
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 9 of them have increased,the monthly prosperity indices of toys, cases & bags and apparel & accessories have stayed in forefront, with a month on month increase of 264.91 points, 51.5 points and 42.24 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of cases & bags, daily necessities, accessories & packaging and hardware & electronics rose for two consecutive months, while the monthly prosperity indices of apparel & accessories, knitting & weaving products, timepieces & eyeglasses, toys and jewelry have rebounded in June.
        The other six of them have decreased, the monthly prosperity indices of electrical & electronic appliances, sports & entertainment products and personal care products have stayed in forefront, with a month on month decrease of 137.6 points, 132.99 points and 102.42 points respectively. The monthly prosperity index of crafts has kept falling for two months, while the monthly prosperity indices of sports &entertainment products, personal care, electrical & electronic appliances, stationary & office supplies and shoes has fallen after rising.
        II.Analysis for the composition of the monthly price index.
        The monthly price index of June, 2020 counted to 100.17 points, increased by 0.1% month-on-month while dropped by 0.02% year-on-year. Among them, the export trade price index, the market order price index and the online exchange price index fell by 0.13%,0.02% and 0.01% respectively, while the direct transaction price index rose by 0.17% month on month.
     
         Among the monthly price index of 15 major categories, 9 of them have increased, the monthly price indices of cases &bags, electrical & electronic appliances and accessories & packaging have stayed in forefront, rose by 2.14 points, 1.19 points and 0.5 points respectively.The monthly price indices of daily necessities, hardware & electrical appliances, shoes, toys, apparel & accessories, cases &bags, electrical & electronic appliances and accessories & packaging have rebounded in June.  While the other 6 of them have decreased,the monthly price indices of office & stationary supplies,  crafts and knitting & weaving products have stayed in forefront, dropped by 0.41 points, 0.33 points and 0.33 points respectively. The monthly price indices of knitting & weaving products, timepieces & eyeglasses and jewelry have kept falling for two months, while the monthly price indices of sports & entertainment products, office & stationary supplies and crafts has dropped after rising.
        III. Analysis for the June’s Market Condition
        (1) Multiple positives drove domestic sales.
        As rainy season of June was coming,  sales of rainy products such as rain gear and rain boots continued to be rising, the monthly prosperity indices of which rose by 94.79 points and 2.5 points. With the arrival of Children’s Day and the summer vacation, toys were in hot sales, the monthly prosperity indices of electrical toys, plush toys, novel toys, model toys, outdoor toys and remote control toys rose by 447.04 points, 250.04 points, 89.25 points, 76.31 points, 63.03 points and 54.12 points respectively. In the end of June, with the gathering of exams in schools, students products have welcomed its peak season, the monthly prosperity indices of paper products and stationary rose by 74.9 points and 14.57 points respectively.
        (2) Autumn and winter products have entered into market.
        Affected by the sales cycle, while the summer products were selling well, the autumn and winter products have entered into the market one after another. The variety expansion indices of beddings, home textiles, skin care products and leather shoes & boots rose by 14.01 points, 6.31 points, 8.68 points and 3.25 points respectively. Meanwhile, the proportion of summer products such as sandals, cloth shoes, cleaning & sanitary daily necessities and apparel were decreased, and the variety expansion indices of which dropped by 28.54 points, 30.93 points, 111.85 points and 19.56 points respectively.
        (3) Expansion of on-site transactions in multiple industries.
        During the epidemic, the live broadcast economy and e-commerce platform transactions were rising day by day, and the frequency of purchases of online merchants coming to the spot was accelerating. In June, the scale indices of toys, cases & bags, hardware & electrical appliances and knitting & weaving products rose by 22.87 points, 7.49 points, 1.37 points and 8.55 points respectively, meanwhile, the market transaction price indices of which rose by 0.15 points, 1.86 points, 0.38 points and 0.18 points respectively. 
        IV. Analysis for market trends.
        (1) Optimistic prospects of accessories & packaging, knitting & weaving products, apparel & accessories and shoes.
        Affected by seasonal factors, autumn and winter products of accessories & packaging, knitting & weaving products, apparel & accessories and shoes have entered into the market, and the popularity in the venue is expected to climb.
        (2)Export industries such as jewelry, hardware & electrical products, personal care products and electrical & electronic appliances transformed to supply domestic product.
        During the epidemic, the foreign trade of  jewelry, hardware & electrical products, personal care products and electrical & electronic appliances was greatly affected, market dealers tried to produce domestic products instead of export products. 
        (3)Increasing festivals in the second half year drove the demands for crafts, toys and daily necessities.
        With the approaching festivals such as National Days, Mid-autumn Festival and Christmas Day in the second half year, the procurements for tourism leisure products increased, the sales peak season of related products such as crafts, toys and daily necessities were coming.
        (4) The orders of timepieces & eyeglasses, cases & bags, official & stationary supplies and sports & entertainment products from surrounding area have increased.
        In order to prepare for the school opening economy in September, economic start of the school in September, the number of purchasers coming to the market to enquiry and purchase student supplies have increased. The future market of timepieces & eyeglasses, cases & bags, official & stationary supplies and sports & entertainment products were prospective.