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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2020/03

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2020-04-29
  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2020/03
         Market vitality was limited with the outbreak of Covid-19, merchants paid more attention to products' transition.
        According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of March 2020 amounted to 1034.83 points, down 12.14 % year on year and 10.34% month on month. While the monthly price index of March 2020 amounted to 100.16 points, down 0.06% month on month and 0.09% year on year. In March, influenced by the coronavirus, passenger flow reduced greatly, market orders were mainly placed by regular customers. Since the market demands and the factory supplies have not recovered completely, the rate of products update slowed down.(Influenced by the coronavirus, the monthly prosperity index collected in March, the data of the march was compared with December 2020.)
        Prosperity index composition and ups and downs
         I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
        This month's prosperity index of March, 2020 was 1034.83 points, down 10.34% month-on-month and 12.14% year-on-year. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        1. Scale index:
        The scale index of March, 2020 counted up to 852.93 points, down 2.11% month-on-month and 3.63% year-on-year. Affected by the Covid-19, the market demand and resumption of production have not yet fully recovered. The new products innovation capabilities of market dealers were limited. The variety expansion degree index fell 0.38% month-on-month. During the epidemic, multiple trading indices fell slightly, the market popularity index, the trade turnover index and the trade volume index were all decreased, down 1.01%, 2.16% and 2.75% respectively.
        2. Benefit index:
        The benefit index of March 2020 counted up to 1311.88 points, down 21.63% month-on-month and 24.83% year-on-year. Since the resumption of production in the first half of the month has not yet been fully restored, the activity of production and operation has been affected. In March, the average gross profit index, the fund’s turnover rate index and the commodity’s turnover rate index were decreased were all decreased, dropped by 23.25%, 35.52% and 29.52% respectively.
        3. Confidence Index: 
        The confidence index of March 2020 amounted to1000.32 points, down 1.12% and 0.06% month-on-month and year-on-year respectively. The spread of foreign epidemics has affected the foreign trade , and business confidence has been affected recently.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Eyewear and Arts & Crafts have kept on rising for two consecutive months, rose by 43.29 points and 7.3 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Shoes, Toys, Jewelry, Accessories & Packaging, Personal Care, Knitting ware, Cases & Bags, Electronic & Electrical Appliances, Stationary & Office Equipments and Daily Necessities have fallen after rise. The monthly prosperity indices of Apparel & Accessories, Sports & Entertain Products and Hardware & Electric Products have kept falling for two consecutive months.
         I. Analysis for the Composition of the Price Index
        The monthly price index of March 2020 amounted to 100.16 points, with a falling range of 0.06% month on month and 0.09% year on year.. Among them, the export trade price index, the market order price index and the online exchange price index fell by 1.92%, 0.84% and 0.2% respectively, while the direct transaction price index rose by 0.29%.
        Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 6 of them have gone up, such as Personal Care Products, Timepieces & Eyeglasses, Office & Stationary Equipments, Jewelry, Accessories & Packaging and Cases & Bags. The monthly price indices of Personal Care Products, Timepieces & Eyeglasses and Office & Stationary Equipments have stayed in forefront, rose by 2.17 points, 1 points and 0.63 points respectively. Among them, the monthly price indices of Accessories and Packaging continued to rise this month, the monthly price indices of Jewelry, Personal Care Products, Office & Stationary Equipments, Timepieces & Eyeglasses and Cases & Bags have rebounded in March. The monthly price index of Apparel & Accessories has kept the same level with last month.
        The other 8 of them have fallen, such as Hardware & Electrical Product, Electrical & Electronic Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Products, Toys, Daily Necessities, Arts &Crafts, Knitting &Weaving Products and Toys. The monthly price indices of Hardware & Electrical Product, Electrical & Electronic Appliances and Sports & Entertainment Products have stayed in forefront in falling range, decreased by 1.72 points, 1.57 points and 0.82 points respectively. Among them, the monthly price indices of Electrical & Electronic Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Poructs, Daily Necessities and Shoes have fallen for two consecutive months. The monthly price index of Hardware & Electrical Product, Toys, Arts &Crafts, Knitting &Weaving Products and Toys have fallen after rising.
        II. Analysis for the May’s Market Condition
        (1) Affected by the epidemic, the market popularity index have fallen.     
        During the epidemic, the number of domestic and foreign merchants decreased. Among the popularity index of 15 major categories, 2 of them rose, 10 of them fell and the last 3 of them kept the same level with last month. Among them, as Apparel & Accessories and Knitting & Weaving Products were mainly purchased by the domestic merchants, the popularity indices of which rose by 14.54 points and 1.1 points respectively. Influenced by the reducing of foreign purchasers and schooling suspension, the demands of Electrical & Electronic Appliances, Sports Entertainment Products and Stationary & Office Supplies has declined, and the attendance rate has decreased. The popularity indices of this three major categories stayed in forefront, with a decrease range of 28.66 points, 20.94 points and 9.85 points respectively. .
        (2) Increased number of surrounding merchants and active purchase of small orders
        Due to the delayed opening of the market, the purchasers from local and surrounding areas had high demands for replenishments, featuring small orders and frequency. The market direct transaction price indices of 9 categories such as care and beauty supplies, timepieces and eyeglasses, jewelry, accessories and packaging, cases & bags, knitting & weaving products, daily necessities, toys and stationary & office supplies increased. Among them, the direct transaction price indices of care and beauty supplies, timepieces and eyeglasses and stationary & office supplies have stayed in forefront, increased by 2.22 points, 1.05 points and 0.75 points respectively.
         (3) Live selling has become a new sales model.
        In order to ease the operating pressure during the epidemic, the government guided merchants to move the live broadcast room to the market, which was generally well received by the merchants. Quite a lot of export-oriented industries such as handicrafts, jewelry, daily necessities, toys, etc. have also started to broadcast live video for domestic customers, and domestic sales have become a new support point. The emergence of the new model has become a highlight of recent sales. With the full recovery of the express logistics industry, the online trading environment tended to be optimized.
         3. Analysis of market trends.
        (1) Domestic sales of apparel & accessories, accessories & packaging, shoes and knitting & weaving products tended to be booming.
        Affected by seasonal factors, seasonal purchases of apparel & accessories, accessories & packaging, shoes and knitting & weaving products were started. Meanwhile, summer products such as hats, slippers, sandals and summer beddings would be hot sellers.
        (2) As domestic epidemic situation got well, the domestic sales of timepieces and eyeglasses, stationary and office supplies, hardware and electrical products, sports and entertainment products, cases and bags was going to recover.
         As domestic epidemic situation got well, schools, enterprises and institutions around the country continued to return work, domestic sales of school supplies and hardware tools such as schoolbags, stationery and sports equipments were expected to increase.
        (3) Exports of jewelry, arts & crafts, personal products, electrical &electronic appliances, daily necessities and toys would transform to sold domestically.
        Affected by the severe epidemic situation abroad, the export-oriented industry gradually adjusted the products structure, and the medium- and high-end products suitable for domestic sales were gradually introduced to the market, and was promoted to the whole country through online platforms such as Internet celebrity live broadcast, Taobao, and Alibaba.