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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/11

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2020-01-21
  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/11

    Domestic sales tended to be booming while foreign trade dropped in a short time.

        According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of November 2019 amounted to 1166.21 points, dropped by 1.39% month on month and 2.27% year on year. While the monthly price index of November 2019 amounted to 100.37 points, increased by 0.27% month on month and 0.36% year on year. Effected by the consumption peak season in the end of the year, domestic sales of the medium- and high-end products in the market tended to be booming, commodity's gross profit ratio index rose slightly. Meanwhile, with the approaching of Christmas Day and early Spring Festival this year, procurement cycle was shortened, along with the departure of some foreign purchasers, the market was in consolidation period with the decreasing of monthly prosperity index.
     
     
    I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index 
        The monthly prosperity index of November, 2019 was 1166.21 points, down 16.42 points month on month and 27.03 points year on year, with a month on month falling range of 1.39% and year on year falling range of 2.27%.The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices: 
        1.Scale Index
        The scale index of November, 2019 counted up to 876.42 points, with month on month falling range of 0.23% while year on year increase range of 1.12%. In this month, the market popularity index, the trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the variety expansion degree index were all decreased, with month on month decreasing degree of 0.42%, 1.52%, 1.84% and 0.52%.  
        2. Benefit Index
        The benefit index of November 2019 counted up to 1714.5 points, with month on month decreasing range of 2.04% and year on year falling range of 5.71% respectively. In this month, with the approaching of Christmas Day and early Spring Festival, the procurement cycle was shortened, the commodity’s turnover rate index, the fund’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were all decreased, with month on month falling range of 11.03%, 11.21% and 1.35% respectively.  
        3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of December 2019 amounted to 1004.3 points, with month on month falling range of 0.19% and year on year increasing range of 0.54%.
     
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,5 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Shoes, Cases & Bags and Daily Necessities have stayed in the forefront, rose by 88.56 points, 44.74 points and 36.58 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Hardware & Electronic Appliances and Knitting & Weaving Products have kept on rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Shoes, Cases & Bags and Daily Necessities have rebound in November.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 10 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Accessories & Packaging and Jewelry have stayed in forefront, decreased by 49.69points, 51.97 points and 115.37 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry, Arts & Crafts, Sports & Entertainment Products, Accessories & Packaging, Timepieces & Eyeglasses, Office & Stationary Products, Personal Care Products and Toys have kept falling for two consecutive months.
        II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of November 2019 amounted to 100.37 points, with a rising range of 0.27% month on month and 0.36% year on year. Among that, the online exchange price index, the market order price index, the direct transaction price index and the export trade price index were all increased, with month on month increasing range of 0.42%, 0.71%, 0.06% and 0.39% respectively.
         Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Cases & Bags and Sports % Entertainment Products have stayed in the forefront, increased by 3.62 points, 1.51 points and 0.39 points respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Hardware & Electric Appliances, Suitcases & Bags, Toys, Sports & Entertainment Products and Stationery & Office Supplies have risen for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Timepieces & Eyeglasses and Daily Necessities have rebounded in June.
    The other 6 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Accessories & Packaging, Shoes, Personal Care Products have stayed in the forefront of the falling ranges, decreased by 0.26 points, 0.06 points and 0.04 points month on month respectively. Among that, the monthly price indices of Jewelry, Arts & Crafts, Shoes and Accessories & Packaging have fallen for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Personal Care Products and Knitting & Weaving Products have fallen after rising.
        The monthly price index of Apparel & Accessories have kept the same level with last month.
        II. Analysis for the December’s Market Condition
        i. With the approaching of Christmas Day, foreign trade shrunk.
        With the approaching of Christmas Day, the number of foreign purchasers reduced, and the foreign trade shrunk. The market popularity indices of traditional foreign oriented industries such as shoes, apparel & accessories, arts & crafts, sports & entertainment products and accessories & packaging decreased by 6.43 points, 10.06 points, 1.02 points, 1.22 points, 33.62 points and 9.52 points respectively. Meanwhile, since the domestic market was in sales peak season in the end of the year, increasing domestic sales promoted profits, the commodity's gross profit ratio indices of industries mentioned above increased by 53.79 points, 87.62 points, 22.38 points, 7.44 points, 60.09 points and 2.18 points respectively.
         ii. Winter products have become highlights of the market.
        As weather got cooler, winter products were in hot sales. The monthly prosperity indices of slippers, auto products, underwear, beddings and woolen yarn increased by 138.34 points, 92.27 points, 47.26 points, 42.62 points and 31.05 points respectively. The booming of domestic and foreign decoration promoted the sales of related industries, the monthly prosperity indices of locks, universal parts, construction & decoration hardware and hardware tools increased by 13.28 points, 10.87 points, 10.23 points and 9.31 points respectively.
        iii. Final exam and the stocking for new semester promoted the sales of stationeries.
        Recently, purchasers began to stock up for new semester, students products were selling well. The monthly prosperity indices of eyeglasses & accessories, measuring instruments, bags, writing tools and eyeglasses rose by 113.42 points, 93.8 points, 41.06 points, 39.55 points and 4.16 points. With the approaching of the end of the year, celebration products were in hot sales, variety expansion degree indices of packaging and paper products rose by 73.38 points and 4.07 points respectively.
        III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
        i. Sales of arts & Crafts, knitting & weaving products and toys were expected to be rising.
        With the approaching of Christmas Day and New Year's Day, domestic wedding and celebration activities were in peak season, domestic demands of arts & Crafts, knitting & weaving products and toys increased significantly.
        ii. Sales of sports & entertainment products, stationary & office supplies, cases & bags and timepieces & eyeglasses tended to be stable.
        Affected by the new semester next year, sales of students products rebounded, purchasers inquires for sports & entertainment products, stationary & office supplies, cases & bags and timepieces & eyeglasses rose, and the future market were promising.
        iii. Sales of shoes, daily necessities, apparel & accessories and accessories & packaging tended to be booming.
        Winter products of shoes, daily necessities, apparel & accessories and accessories & packaging entered the domestic trade peak season, which drove the sales of accessories & packaging. With the continuous dropping of temperature, winter products were still in hot sales. 
        iv. Sales of hardware & electrical appliances, electronic & electrical appliances, personal care products and jewelry tended to be stable.
        With the approaching of Christmas Day, foreign trade shrunk, traditional foreign oriented industries such as hardware & electrical appliances, electronic & electrical appliances, personal care products and jewelry tended to be falling.