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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/10

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-11-29
  • According to the monitor of “Yiwu • China Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of October 2019 amounted to 1182.63 points, with a rising range of 1.38% month on month and 2.61% year on year. While the monthly price index of October 2019 amounted to 100.1 points, up 0.01% month on month and 0.06% year on year. In October, the scale transaction of the whole market shrunk, while the profit indicator rose slightly. On the one hand, influenced by favorable factors such as tourist season and wedding peak that brought by festival effect of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, domestic consumer demand was fully released, and domestic sales in October showed a slight decline. On the other hand, with the China Yiwu International Commodities Fair and China Yiwu International Forest Products Fair held, exhibition effect was prominent with the active foreigh trade transaction. However, as the market was in the transition period between new and old hot spots, it will take some time for the autumn and winter products to become the mainstream hot spot. It is expected that the market may enter a short-term consolidation with the confidence index declined slightly. But on the whole, the market still tends to be prosperous in November.
    I.                   Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
    The monthly prosperity index of October 2019 amounted to 1182.6 points, up 16.07 points month on month with a rising range of 1.38% and up 30.13 points year on year with a rising range of 2.61%. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
    1. Scale Index
    The scale index of August 2019 counted up to 889.31 points, down 15.59 points with a declining range of 1.72% month on month and up 20.7 points with a rising range of 2.38% year on year. The trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the market popularity index were decreased by 2.19%, 2.24% and 0.04%, while the variety expansion degree index was increased by 0.51% month on month respectively.
    Among the Scale Index of 15 major categories, 5 of them have gone up, such as Hardware & Electrical Materials, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Stationery & Office Supplies, Knitting & Weaving Products and Accessories & Packaging. The maximum increase is 2.43% (Hardware & Electrical Materials). While another 10 of them have fallen at different degrees, such as Arts & Crafts, Jewelry, Toys, Timepieces & Eyewear, Sports & Entertainment Products, Apparel & Accessories, Shoes, Suitcases & Bags, Personal Care and Daily Necessities. The maximum decrease is 9.93% (Timepieces & Eyewear).
    2. Benefit Index
    The benefit index of October 2019 counted up to 1750.16 points, up 76.59 points with a rising range of 4.58% month on month and up 66.57 points with a rising range of 3.95% year on year. In this month, the commodity's turnover rate index, the gross profit ratio index, the average gross profit index and the fund's turnover rate index were increased by 7.11%, 4.68%, 4.41% and 2.82% respectively month on month.
    Among the Benefit Index of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up, such as Jewelry, Hardware & Electrical Materials, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Stationery & Office Supplies, Apparel & Accessories, Knitting & Weaving Products, Suitcases & Bags and Daily Necessities. The maximum increase is 10.18% (Apparel & Accessories). While another 7 of them have fallen at different degrees, such as Arts & Crafts, Toys, Timepieces & Eyewear, Sports & Entertainment Products, Shoes, Personal Care and Accessories & Packaging. The maximum decrease is 31.04% (Shoes).
    3. Confidence Index
    The confidence index of October 2019 amounted to 1006.2 points, down 2.24 points with an declining range of 0.22% month on month and up 6.27 points with a rising range of 0.63% year on year.
     
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 4 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Hardware & Electrical Materials, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Apparel & Accessories have stayed in forefront, increasing 4.88%, 2.67% and 3.52% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity indices of Hardware & Electrical Materials and Electronics & Electrical Appliances have kept on rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Apparel & Accessories and Knitting & Weaving Products have rebounded in October.
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 11 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Shoes, Sports & Entertainment Products and Timepieces & Eyewear have stayed in forefront, decreasing 14.54%, 9.57% and 5.11% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity index of Shoes, Sports & Entertainment Products, Timepieces & Eyewear, Personal Care, Accessories & Packaging, Daily Necessities, Stationery & Office Supplies, Arts & Crafts and Jewelry have fallen after rise in this month. While the monthly prosperity indices of Toys has decreased for two consecutive months.
    II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
    The monthly price index of October 2019 amounted to 100.1 points, up 0.01 point with a rising range of 0.01% month on month, while up 0.06 points with a rising range of 0.06% year on year. Among that, the direct transaction price index was increased by 0.02%, while the export trade price index, the market order price index and the online exchange price index were all declining, decreased by 0.22%, 0.04% and 0.16% respectively month on month.
     
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Personal Care and Hardware & Electrical Products have stayed in the forefront, increased 1.10%, 1.01% and 0.44% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Hardware & Electrical Products, Sports & Entertainment Products, Knitting & Weaving Products and Toys have kept on rising for two consecutive months. While the monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Personal Care and Apparel & Accessories have rebounded in this month.
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, the other 7 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Timepieces & Eyewear and Jewelry have stayed in the forefront, decreased 1.01%, 0.88% and 0.11% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Shoes, Arts & Crafts, Daily Necessities and Jewelry have kept on decreasing for two consecutive months. While the monthly price indices of Accessories & Packaging, Timepieces & Eyewear and Electronics & Electrical Appliances have fallen after rise in October.
    III. Analysis for the September’s Market Condition
    i. New autumn & winter products sold well.
    As the weather turned cooler, seasonal products gradually ushered in peak season. New autumn & winter products attracted lots of purchasers to enquire and place the order. the variety expansion degree indices of Leather Shoes & Boots, Fashion Accessories and Skin Care & Beauty Products increased 51.43 points, 14 points and 7.34 points month on month respectively. And the Prosperity Indices of Leather Shoes & Boots, Towels and Fashion Accessories increased 126.91 points, 27.47 points and 24.78 points month on month.
    ii. After the National Day holiday, demestic sales fell back while foreign sales were better.
    Influenced by favorable factors such as tourist season and wedding peak that brought by festival effect of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, domestic consumer demand was fully released, and domestic sales in October showed a slight decline. The Prosperity Indices of Tourism & Sports Shoes, Sports & Body-building Equipments, Leisure & Entertainment Products and Special Purpose Crafts decreased 470.52 points, 133.62 points, 102.09 points and 55.15 points month on month, while the Prosperity Indices of Aroma Products, Cases, Hardware Tools, Plush & Cloth Toys and Electronic Instruments increased 312 points, 294.96 points, 110.72 points, 100.54 points and 48.16 points.
    iii. The effect of exhibition was obvious.
    With the opening of China Yiwu International Commodities Fair and China Yiwu International Forest Products Fair, exhibition effect was pominent with the active foreign trade transaction. The Scale Indices of Hardware Tools, Aroma Products, Costume Jewelry and Lighting Equipments & Products increased 67.5 points, 231.16 points, 1.48 points and 17.19 points respectively.
    IV. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    i.As the weather keeps turning cooler, the demands for autumn & winter products will be larger. The future market of the scarves, underwear, cotton slippers and cotton gloves are promising. And the sales of related industries such as apparel & accessories, knitting & weaving products and shoes tend to be rising and become the hot spot in November.
    ii.The effect of exhibition will continue. The trade volume of Hardware & Electrical Products and Electronic Instruments tends to be higher.
    iii.With the coming of Double Eleven Day, purchasers are placing orders actively and the sales of Personal Care and Electronics & Electrical Appliances tend to be better.