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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/09

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-10-28
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        According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of September 2019 amounted to 1166.56 points, increased by 1.78% month on month while decreased by 3.51% year on year. While the monthly price index of September 2019 amounted to 100.09 points, down 0.02% month on month while up 0.10% year on year. Seasonal change of the whole market was continue in September. Sales of autumn & winter products were promising with active procurements of purchasers, celebration effects of Mid-autumn Festival and National Day also promoted the whole market, which led the increasing of market benefit index and scale index. The confidence index dropped slightly since the dealers' confidence was affected by the factors such as pressure on de-stocking and periodic falling of purchasers' replenishments. It is estimated that the market would enter consolidation phase in October, with more upward pressure on sales.
     
        The monthly prosperity index of September, 2019 was 1166.56 points, up 20.35 points month on month, with a month on month range of 1.78%; while down 25.67 points year on year, with year on year range of 1.8%. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices: 
        1.Scale Index
        The scale index of September, 2019 counted up to 904.9 points, up 3.23 points month on month and 32.6 points year on year, with a rising range of 0.36% and 3.74% respectively. The trade turnover index and the trade volume index increased by 0.61% and 0.67% respectively, The variety expansion degree index and the market popularity index were all decreased with month on month decrease of 0.60% and 0.96% respectively.
         2. Benefit Index
        The benefit index of September 2019 counted up to 1673.57 points, decreased by 64.85 points with a month on month increasing range of 4.03&, while decreased by 138.79 points with a month on month falling range of 7.66%. In this month, the commodity’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were both increased, with month on month rising range of 4.65% and 7.96% respectively. The fund's turnover rate index and commodity's gross profit ratio index were both decreased, with month on month falling range of 1.50% and 1.86% respectively.
        3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of September 2019 amounted to 1008.44 points, decreased by 1.32 points with a falling range of 0.13% month on month, while increased by 9.75 points with a rising range of 0.98%.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,11 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Glasses, Shoes and Sports & Entertainment Products have stayed in the forefront, with month on month rising range of 21.15%, 17.90% and 8.66% respectively. Among that, the monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Personal Care Products, Jewelry and Arts & Crafts have kept rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Glasses, Shoes, Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Stationary and Office Supplies have rebound in September.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 4 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Suitcase & Bags, Apparel & Accessories and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in forefront, with a falling range of 6.07%, 2.75% and 2.42% respectively. The monthly prosperity index of Suitcase & Bags was falling after rising at first. The monthly prosperity index of Toys, Apparel & Accessories and Knitting & Weaving Products has kept falling for two consecutive months. 
        II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of September 2019 amounted to 100.09 points, down 0.02 points month on month with falling range of 0.02%, while up 0.1 points year on year with rising range of 0.1%. Among that, the market order price index and the export trade price index were both increased, with month on month increase of 0.12% and 0.31% respectively. While the direct transaction price index and the online exchange price index were both decreased, with month on month falling range of 0.14% and 0.11% respectively.
     
        Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Sports & Entertainment Products and Hardware & Electrical Products have stayed in the forefront, increased by 1.54%, 0.66% and 0.60% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Knitting & Weaving Products, Stationary & Office Supplies, Accessories & Packaging and Toys have increased for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Hardware & Electrical Products, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Timepieces & Eyewear have rebounded in March.
        The other 7 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Personal Care and Shoes have stayed in forefront, with month on month falling range of 3.72%, 0.33% and 0.23%.Among that, the monthly price indices of Personal Care, Jewelry, Arts & Crafts and Apparel & Accessories have kept fallen for two consecutive months; and the monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Daily Necessities and Shoes have fallen after rising.
        III. Analysis for the Month’s Market Condition
        i. Sales of autumn & winter products turned to be booming.
         After entering the autumn, seasonal products ushered in the sales season, the new autumn & winter products hit shelves frequently, the purchasers in the market were stocking actively. The sales of autumn & winter sneakers, car thicken cushions, ordinary bath towels, yarn-dyed facial tissues and other products were increasing. The monthly prosperity indices of tourism & sports shoes, auto products and woolen yarns increased 368.04 points, 74.66 points and 6.74 points respectively. In the second half of the year, with increasing celebration activities in China, the domestic sales of special purpose crafts and celebration paper products were booming. The monthly prosperity indices of gifts packaging paper, wedding products and celebration bags rose by 1199.5 points, 235.01 points and 174.12 points respectively.
        ii. Stationary products were in replenishments.
        With the opening of new semester, the replenishments of students' related supplies continued, the sales of office supplies increased, the average gross profit index and the benefit index rose by 211.72 points and 82.5 points respectively. The profit indices of paper products, writing tools and office supplies & equipments, writing instruments increased by 797.27 points, 485.6 points and 161.02 points respectively. In the beginning of new semester, the sales of eyeglasses and timepieces industry rose, with the prosperity index and benefit index increased by 242.25 points and 630.93 points respectively. The benefit index and prosperity index of watches rose by1633.97 points and 437.91 points respectively. The benefit index and prosperity index of eyeglasses rose by 761.42 points and 275.4 points respectively. The overall trade volume of the industry increased steadily.
        iii. "Golden September and Silver 10", the festive effect was highlighted, and the market consumption market was rising.
        Effected by the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, the overall sales of the market increased significantly. The number of people traveld during holiday has reached record highs, which has promoted the sales of sports & entertainment products and personal care products. The monthly prosperity indices of which increased by 105.72 points and 56.21 points respectively. The benefit indices of which increased by 200.7 points and 335.86 points respectively. As this year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of China, flags and lanterns were in great demands. The monthly prosperity index and benefit index of celebration products increased by 174.12 points and 325.42 points respectively. The prosperity index rose by 105.72 points and 56.21 points respectively, and the benefit index rose by 200.7 points and 335.86 respectively. Point, this year National Day nationally celebrated the 70th , the national flag, red lantern sales increased significantly, the festive supplies boom index rose by 174.12 points, the scale index rose by 32.42 points
        IV. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
        i. Autumn & winter products were in great demands. The future market of the scarves, underwear, cotton slippers and cotton gloves were promising, and the sales of related industries such as apparel & accessories, knitting & weaving products and shoes tend to be rising.
        ii. Festival economic will effect the related industries continuously. After the peak season of stocking in September, the market of crafts, shoes and daily necessities will gradually stabilize, while the consumption of sports & entertainment products, personal care and bags & cases will continuously rise.
        iii. Summer products such as cooling summer appliances, swimming wear and summer auto supplies will be reduced by dealers. The structural adjustment of related industries will be continue.