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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/08

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-09-30
  • According to the monitor of “Yiwu • China Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of August 2019 amounted to 1146.21 points, with a falling range of 1.95% month on month and 5.54% year on year. While the monthly price index of August 2019 amounted to 100.11 points, down 0.07% month on month while up 0.16% year on year. In August, the market was active and the selling of Stationeries was booming. With the end of summer, merchants were running down stocks with the discount. With the coming of new products for autumn and winter, the market entered the second half of the procurement and stocking stage especially for Christmas items. In August, the scale index and the confidence index were increased slightly while the benefit index was decreased a bit.
    I.Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
    The monthly prosperity index of August 2019 amounted to 1146.21 points, down 22.83 points month on month with a declining range of 1.95% and down 67.18 points year on year with a declining range of 5.54%. The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
    1. Scale Index
    The scale index of August 2019 counted up to 901.67 points, up 0.86 points with a rising range of 0.10% month on month and up 27.05 points with a rising range of 3.09% year on year. The trade turnover index and the trade volume index were increased by 0.49% and 0.67%, while the market popularity index and the variety expansion degree index were decreased by 2.18% and 1.53% month on month respectively.
    Among the Scale Index of 15 major categories, 5 of them have gone up, such as Arts & Crafts, Sports & Entertainment Products, Daily Necessities, Jewelry and Toys. The maximum increase is 7.61% (Arts & Crafts). While another 10 of them have fallen at different degrees, such as Accessories & Packaging, Shoes, Apparel & Accessories, Timepieces & Eyewear, Electronics & Electrical Appliances, Knitting & Weaving Products, Suitcases & Bags, Personal Care, Stationery & Office Supplies and Hardware & Electrical Materials. The maximum decrease is 6.77% (Timepieces & Eyewear).
    2. Benefit Index
    The benefit index of August 2019 counted up to 1608.72 points, down 77.55 points with a decreasing range of 4.60% month on month and down 273.36 points with a declining range of 14.52% year on year. In this month, the gross profit ratio index, the commodity’s turnover rate index, the fund’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were decreased by 2.80%, 4.09%, 6.58% and 4.92% respectively month on month.
    Among the Benefit Index of 15 major categories, 7 of them have gone up, such as Sports & Entertainment Products, Personal Care, Jewelry, Suitcases & Bags, Arts & Crafts, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Knitting & Weaving Products. The maximum increase is 24.89% (Sports & Entertainment Products). While another 8 of them have fallen at different degrees, such as Shoes, Timepieces & Eyewear, Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging, Stationery & Office Supplies, Toys, Hardware & Electrical Materials and Apparel & Accessories. The maximum decrease is 28.71% (Shoes).
    3. Confidence Index
    The confidence index of August 2019 amounted to 1009.76 points, up 0.3 points with an increasing range of 0.03% month on month and up 13.37 points with an increasing range of 1.34% year on year.
     
     
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, 5 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Jewelry and Arts & Crafts have stayed in forefront, increasing 11.92%, 3.65% and 3.65% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care and Jewelry have kept on rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Suitcases & Bags, Arts & Crafts and Sports & Entertainment Products have rebounded in September.
    Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 10 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Shoes and Daily Necessities have stayed in forefront, decreasing 14.31%, 13.57% and 7.40% respectively month on month. The monthly prosperity index of Knitting & Weaving Products has decreased for two consecutive months, while the monthly prosperity indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Shoes, Daily Necessities, Accessories & Packaging, Stationery & Office Supplies, Apparel & Accessories, Shoes, Hardware & Electrical Products and Electronics & Electrical Appliances have fallen after rise in this month.
    II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
    The monthly price index of August 2019 amounted to 100.11 points, down 0.07 points with a declining range of 0.07% month on month, while up 0.16 points with a rising range of 0.16% year on year. Among that, the online exchange price index was increased by 0.01%, while the export trade price index, the market order price index and the direct transaction price index were all declining, decreased by 0.11%, 0.06% and 0.46% respectively month on month.
     
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 8 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Suitcases & Bags, Knitting & Weaving Products and Sports & Entertainment Products have stayed in the forefront, increased 2.85%, 1.14% and 0.27% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Accessories & Packaging, Shoes and Knitting & Weaving Products have kept on rising for two consecutive months. While the monthly price indices of Toys, Daily Necessities, Stationery & Office Supplies and Suitcases & Bags have rebounded in this month.
    Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, the other 7 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Hardware & Electrical Products and Personal Care have stayed in the forefront, decreased 2.22%, 1.19% and 0.81% respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Personal Care, Electronics & Electrical Appliances and Jewelry have kept on rising for two consecutive months. While the monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyewear, Hardware & Electrical Products, Arts & Crafts and Apparel & Accessories have fallen after rise in August.
    III. Analysis for the September’s Market Condition
    i. Back-to-school product sales were booming.
    Since the coming of new term, back-to-school products were selling well. The prosperity indices of Writing Tools, Stationeries and Measuring Instruments increased 216.77 points, 116.39 points and 72.12 points respectively.
    ii. Autumn & winter products entered peak season.
    Sales of summer products dropped obviously. The prosperity indices of Sun Glasses, Slippers, Sandals and Small Home Appliances decreased 314.83 points, 121.15 points, 63.96 points and 45.75 points respectively. Outdoor activities increased and demands for Leisure & Entertainment Products and Sports & Body-building Equipments were rising. The prosperity indices of them increased 125.86 points and 124.13 points. What’s more, the prosperity indices of Baby Supplies, Woolen Yarn and Home Textiles increased 346.59 points, 120.97 points and 114.47 points.
    iii. Foreign trade market was steady.
    Christmas items continued to be purchased and the prosperity index increased 96.7 points. The prosperity indices of  glass candlesticks and Christmas lamps increased 802.25 points and 775.8 points month on month. The sales of Ear Jewelry, Artistic Crafts and Electric & Electronic Toys increased 273.13 points, 210.57 points and 125.28 points.
    IV. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
    i. Sales of summer products is in the destocking stage and the demand for autunm & winter products will be booming, especially for Apparel & Accessories and Knitting & Weaving Products.
    ii.With the school opened, the demand for Stationery & Office Supplies, Sports & Entertainment Products and Eyewear will decrease.
    iii.With the coming of Mid-autumn Festival and National Day, holiday products and Christmas-related products such as Arts & Crafts, Jewelry and Toys will sell well.