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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/07

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-08-26
  • According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of July 2019 amounted to 1169.04 points, up 2.16% month on month while down 3.51% year on year. While the monthly price index of July 2019 amounted to 100.18 points, down 0.01% month on month while up 0.34% year on year. Since the beginning of summer vocation, tourism groups of students and teachers for purchasing were increasing, sales of tourism products kept booming. Influenced by the longer rainy season this year, the sales of rain gear products have welcomed a peak of replenishment. In addition, the southern part of the country has entered the flood season, and the orders for flood control equipments such as hardware tools and water rescue equipments rose obviously. Since the country entered into the hottest days in the late July, summer products have sold well. Driven by the above positives, the prosperity index of July rebounded slightly, and several indices such as the trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the average gross profit index rose simultaneously.
     
     
     
        I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index
     
        The monthly prosperity index of July, 2019 was 1169.04 points, up 2.16% month on month while down 3.51% year on year.The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        1.Scale Index
        The scale index of July, 2019 counted up to 900.81 points, with month on month rising range of 1.39% and year on year rising range of 2.06%. In order to prepare for foreign purchases in the second half of the year, the autumn and winter products of many industries have been listed on a small scale. The variety expansion degree index in July increased by 1.86%. The arrival of summer vacation promoted the consumption of students, which made the market popularity index increased by 0.71%. The passenger flow in the middle of the year was stable, as well as the overall market operation, and the trade turnover index and the trade volume index rose by 1.13% and 1.62% respectively.
        2. Benefit index
        The benefit index of July 2019 counted up to1686.27 points, up 4.11% month on month and down 9.57% year-on-year. Recently, the export sales rebounded and the profit of market dealers increased. to increase the profit margin of the business. The commodity’s turnover rate index, the fund’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were all increased, with month on month rising range of 2.32%, 12.11% and 6.05% respectively. 
         3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of July 2019 amounted to 1009.46 points, decreased by 0.06% month on month and increased by 1.25% year on year. Some industries started to change seasonal products, due to the the uncertainty of the new product market and the uncertainty of the international trade environmen, short-term business confidence of the market dealers were not optimistic.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,11 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry, Daily Necessities and Timepieces & Glasses have stayed in the forefront, up 126.4 points, 122.51 points and114.22 points. While another 4 of them have fallen down. The monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Knitting & Weaving Products and Cases & Bags have stayed in the forefront, decreased by 149.84 points, 41.23 points and 39.04 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Jewelry, Toys, Stationary & Office Supplies, Electric & Electronic Appliances, Package & Accessories have kept rising for two months. The monthly prosperity indices of Daily Necessities, Timepieces & Eyeglasses, Shoes, Hardware & Electrical Products, Personal Care and Apparel & Accessories rebounded. The monthly prosperity indices of Arts & Crafts, Knitting & Weaving Products and Sports & Entertainment Products have fallen after risen. The monthly prosperity index of Cases & Bags has kept fallen for two months.
        (II) Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
          The monthly price index of July 2019 amounted to 100.18 points, down 0.01% month on month while up 0.34% year on year. Among them, the export trade price index, the market order price index and the online exchange price index fell by 0.44%, 0.25% and 0.09% respectively, while the direct transaction price index rose by 0.08%.
        Among the monthly price index of the 15 major categories, 7 of them have increased, the monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyeglasses, Hardware & Electronic Products and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in forefront, increased by 2.01 points, 0.74 points and 0.53 points respectively. 7 of them have decreased, the monthly price indices of Electrical & Electronic Appliances, Cases & Bags and Personal Care have stayed in forefront, dropped by 1.18 points, 0.25 points and 0.2 points respectively. The monthly price indices of Timepieces & Eyeglasses, Arts & Crafts, Shoes and Apparel & Accessories have kept rising for two months. The monthly price indices of Hardware & Electrical Products and Packaging & Accessories has rebounded. The monthly price indices of Daily Necessities, Personal Care and Cases & Bags have fallen after rose. The monthly price indices of Toys, Jewelry and Electrical &Electronic Appliances have kept fallen for two months. The monthly price index of Sports & Entertainment Products has kept the same level with last month.
    II. Analysis for the July’s Market Condition
        (1) Summer products lead the market.
         In early July, as the rainy season continued, rainy products continued to sell well. The monthly prosperity indices of rain gear and rain boots increased by 151.113 points and 35.9 points respectively. The domestic sales and export for summer shoes were stable. The monthly prosperity indices of leather shoes and boosts, slippers and sandals rose by 294.81 points, 118.28 points and 33.56 points respectively. The Christmas items procurements from European and American merchants entered the peak season, the monthly prosperity indices and trade volume indices of special purpose crafts and plush (cloth) toys handicrafts have both increased, the monthly prosperity indices of which have increased by 68.65 points and 115.17 points respectively and the trade volume indices have increased by 60.23 points and 25.13 points respectively.
        (2) New autumn and winter products were coming to the market continuously.
        Some industries started to change products while summer products were still in hot sales. The variety expansion indices of perfume, tourism & sports shoes, apparel & accessories, personal care products and woolen yarn increased by 15.11 points, 10.96 points, 56.47 points, 7.52 points and 0.41 points respectively. Since the summer sales peak season was almost over, the overall market tended to be stable, the monthly prosperity indices of sports & body-building products, cloth shoes, towels and sanitary & cleaning supplies dropped by 136.82 points, 85.06 points, 33.07 points, 9.31 points and 0.71 points respectively.
        (3) Holiday economy has become a market highlight.
         Influenced by interest classes during summer vacation, stationary products were in great demands, the orders from surrounding purchasers were increasing. The monthly prosperity indices of measuring instruments, stationary equipments, writing tools and stationeries rose by 198.78 points, 89.61 points, 24.5 points and 3.25 points respectively. In addition, the summer tourist season drives the wholesales of the market. The monthly prosperity indices of leisure tools vehicles, special purpose crafts and daily-use crafts increased by 76.76 points, 68.65 points and 16.58 points respectively.
    III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
        (1) Future market of packaging & accessories, knitting & weaving products, apparel &accessories and shoes were promising.
        Affected by seasonal factors, autumn and winter products of packaging & accessories, knitting & weaving products, apparel &accessories and shoes came to the market, and the export market was expected to be booming.
        (2) Foreign trade of jewellery, hardware & electrical products, personal care products and electrical &electronic appliances tended to be stable.
         Since the number of foreign purchasers was stable in the middle of the year, the foreign trade of jewelry, hardware & electrical products, personal care products and electrical &electronic appliances tended to be steady.
        (3) Increasing domestic and international festivals enlarge the demands for handicrafts, toys and daily necessities.
        With the approaching of the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, Halloween and Christmas Day in the second half year, the handicrafts, toys and daily necessities greeted their sales peak season.
        (4) Surrounding procurements for timepieces & eyeglasses, cases & bags, office & stationary equipments and sports & entertainment products were increasing.
        As students would be back to school in September, domestic sales of the students products such as timepieces & eyeglasses, cases & bags, stationary & office equipments and sports & entertainment products were expected to rise.