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  • Monthly Prosperity Index Analysis in 2019/05

  • Source:Yiwu · China Commodity Index Author:Yiwu · China Commodity Index 2019-06-25
  •     According to the monitor of “China•Yiwu Commodity Index”, which is also called “Yiwu Index”, the monthly prosperity index of May 2019 amounted to 1146.25 points, down 21.06 points with a falling range of 1.8 % year on year and 46.78 points with a falling range of 3.92% month on month. While the monthly price index of May 2019 amounted to 100.13 points, down 0.1 points with a falling range of 0.1% month on month while up 0.12 points with a rising range of 0.12% year on year. Influenced by the early Ramadan this year, the foreign trade of Yiwu fell with trade turnover index and trade volume index were both decreased. Meanwhile, Sino-US trade war produced an effect on purchasers, period of placing order were longer than before. Quite a few dealers adjusted products' structure to enhance domestic sales. Hot domestic sales and returning foreign trade after Ramadan led promising future market.

     
     
        I. Analysis for the Composition of the Prosperity Index

         The monthly prosperity index of May, 2019 was 1146.25 points, down 46.78 points month on month and 21.06 points year on year, with a month on month range of 3.92% and year on year range of 1.8%.The monthly prosperity index can be divided into the following sub-indices:
        1.Scale Index
        The scale index of May, 2019 counted up to 889.61 points, with month on month falling range of 0.23% while year on year increase range of 1.12%. By the coming summer, new summer products of several industries came to the market, and the variety expansion degree index rise 13.06 points month on month with a rising range of 1.32%. Influenced by Ramadan, the trade turnover index, the trade volume index and the market popularity index were all decreased with month on month decrease of 1.55%, 2.36% and 0.93% respectively.
        2. Benefit Index
        The benefit index of May 2019 counted up to 1620.87 points, down 8.29% month on month and 5.69% year on year. In this month, falling of foreign trade led to reduced profits, the commodity’s turnover rate index, the fund’s turnover rate index and the average gross profit index were all decreased, with month on month falling range of 15.27%, 16.1% and 10.34% respectively.
        3. Confidence Index
        The confidence index of May 2019 amounted to 1013.81 points, with a rising range of 0.91% month on month and 1.45% year on year. As the beginning of summer, summer products were in great demands, market dealers held optimistic attitudes towards future market.
     
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories,5 of them have gone up. The monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Cases & Bags and Knitting & Weaving Products have stayed in the forefront, up 54.86 points, 44.99 points and 13.21 points. The monthly prosperity indices of Knitting & Weaving Products, Shoes and Timepieces & Eyeglasses have kept on rising for two consecutive months. And the monthly prosperity indices of Sports & Entertainment Products and Cases & Bags have rebound in May.
        Among the monthly prosperity index of 15 major categories, the other 10 of them have fallen. The monthly prosperity indices of Personal Care, Apparel & Accessories and Toys have stayed in forefront, down 84.74 points, 79.61 points and 69.86 points respectively. The monthly prosperity indices of Toys, Apparel & Accessories, Jewelry, Accessories & Packaging, Electric & Electronic Appliances, Hardware & Electrical Products and Stationery & Office Supplies have fallen after risen. The monthly prosperity indices Arts & Crafts, Daily Necessities and Personal Care have kept falling for two consecutive months.
        II. Analysis for the Composition of the Monthly Price Index
        The monthly price index of May 2019 amounted to 100.13 points, down 0.1 points with falling range of 0.1%. Among the monthly price indices of 15 major categories, 7 of them have gone up. The monthly price indices of Electric & Electronic Appliances, Cases & Bags and Arts & Crafts have stayed in the forefront, up 1.92 points, 0.977 points and 0.51 points respectively month on month. Among that, the monthly price indices of Arts & Crafts and Jewelry have risen for two consecutive months; the monthly price indices of Toys, Daily Necessities, Cases & Bags, Electric & Electronic Appliances and Timepiece & Eyewear have rebounded in this month.
        The other 7 of them have fallen. The monthly price indices of Knitting & Weaving Products, Hardware &Electric Products and Stationary & Office Equipments have stayed in the forefront of the falling ranges, down 2.67 points, 1.84 points and 0.43 points month on month respectively. Among that, the monthly price indices of Knitting & Weaving Products, Packaging & Accessories and Hardware & Electrical products have fallen after risen. The monthly price indices of Sports & Entertainment Products, Stationary & Office Equipments, Personal Care and Apparel & Accessories have fallen for two consecutive months. While the monthly price index of Shoes has kept the same level with last month.
        II. Analysis for the May’s Market Condition
        i. Ramadan effected the foreign trade.
         Since Ramadan began, market foreign purchasers were reduced, and the popularity index fell with a month on month decreasing range of 0.93%. Trade turnover indices of foreign-oriented industries such as Arts & Crafts, Hardware & Electrical Products, Apparel & Accessories, Jewelry and Shoes were all decreased, down 23.04 points, 32.07 points, 5.86 points, 38.81 points and 62.73 points month on month respectively, while their trade volume indices were all decreased, down 27.51 points, 23.84 points, 6.91 points, 44.33 points and 76.8 points month on month respectively. 
        ii. Rigid demands promoted domestic sales.
        Driven by the rigid demands, the variety of summer products increased. The variety expansion degree index of Towel, Rain Boots, Care & Beauty Tools, Inflatable Toys and Sanitary & Cleaning Daily Necessities were all increased, up30.89 points, 8.49 points, 59.74 points, 0.81 points and 32.01 points month on month respectively. And their monthly prosperity indices have increased 152.12 points, 120.02 points, 10.54 points, 5.16 points and 4.26 points respectively.
        iii. Students products have welcomed sales peak season in the middle of the year.
        With the approaching of test season of schools, students products have welcomed replenishment peak season. The monthly prosperity indices of eye glasses & accessories, measuring instruments, sports & body-building equipments, stationary & office supplies and eye glasses have increased 144.33 points, 104.95 points, 90.76 points, 87.63 points and 67.48 points month on month respectively. Influenced by the later summer vocation and opening of interest and tutor classes, the related industries were expected to be booming.
        III. Analysis for the Marketing Trends
     
        i. With the approaching of Dragon Boat Festival, the tourism products such as sports & entertainment products, cases & bags, arts & crafts, toys and timepieces & eyewear were selling well, mainly for market direct sales and small orders.
        ii. As the Ramadan would be ended in June, foreign purchasers would return recently. The foreign trade of jewelry, hardware & electronic appliances, personal care and packaging & accessories would be recovered, and the sales of Christmas items would enjoy their peak season.
        iii. Domestic sales of summer products kept stable. The sales of daily necessities, knitting & weaving products, shoes and apparel & accessories tended to be stable. With the coming of summer vocation, students' products such as electric & electronic products and stationary & office supplies were expected to be booming.